How Interest Rates Affect The U.S. Markets
Changes in interest rates can have both positive and negative effects on the U.S. markets. When the Federal Reserve Board (the Fed) changes the rate at which banks borrow money, this has a ripple effect across the entire economy. Below, we will examine how interest rates can have an effect on the economy as a whole, the stock and bond markets, inflation and recessions.
How Interest Rates Affect Spending?
With every loan, there is a possibility that the borrower will not repay the money. To compensate lenders for that risk, there must be a reward: interest. Interest is the amount of money that lenders earn when they make a loan that the borrower repays, and the interest rate is the percentage of the loan amount that the lender charges to lend money.
The existence of interest allows borrowers to spend money immediately, instead of waiting to save the money to make a purchase. The lower the interest rate, the more willing people are to borrow money to make big purchases, such as houses or cars. When consumers pay less in interest, this gives them more money to spend, which can create a ripple effect of increased spending throughout the economy. Businesses and farmers also benefit from lower interest rates, as it encourages them to make large equipment purchases due to the low cost of borrowing. This creates a situation where output and productivity increase.
Conversely, higher interest rates mean that consumers dont have as much disposable income and must cut back on spending. When higher interest rates are coupled with increased lending standards, banks make fewer loans. This affects not only consumers, but also businesses and farmers, who cut back on spending for new equipment, thus slowing productivity or reducing the number of employees. The tighter lending standards mean that consumers will cut back on spending, and this will affect many businesses bottom lines. This will cause the businesses to reduce the number of employees that they have and to hold off on any major equipment purchases.
The Effect of Interest Rates on Inflation and Recessions
Whenever interest rates are rising or falling, you commonly hear about the federal funds rate. This is the rate that banks use to lend each other money. It can change daily, and because this rates movement affects all other loan rates, it is used as an indicator to show whether interest rates are rising or falling.
These changes can affect both inflation and recessions. Inflation refers to the rise in the price of goods and services over time. It is the result of a strong and healthy economy. However, if inflation is left unchecked, it can lead to a significant loss of purchasing power.
To help keep inflation manageable, the Fed watches inflation indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). When these indicators start to rise more than 2-3% a year, the Fed will raise the federal funds rate to keep the rising prices under control. Because higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs, people will eventually start spending less. The demand for goods and services will then drop, which will cause inflation to fall. (Find out why economists are torn about how to calculate inflation in The Consumer Price Index Controversy.)
A good example of this occurred between 1981 and 1982. Inflation was at 14% a year and the Fed raised interest rates to 20%. This caused a severe recession, but it did put an end to the spiraling inflation that the country was seeing. Conversely, falling interest rates can cause recessions to end. When the Fed lowers the federal funds rate, borrowing money becomes cheaper; this entices people to start spending again.
A good example of this occurred from 2001 to 2002, when the Fed cut the federal funds rate to 1.25%. This greatly contributed to the economys 2003 recovery. By raising and lowering the federal funds rate, the Fed can prevent runaway inflation and lessen the severity of recessions. (To learn more, read The Federal Reserves Fight Against Recession and The Impact Of Recession On Businesses.)
How Interest Rates Affect the U.S. Stock and Bond Markets
Investors have a wide variety of investment options. When comparing the average dividend yield on a blue-chip stock to the interest rate on a certificate of deposit (CD) or the yield on a U.S. Treasury bond (T-bonds), investors will often choose the option that provides the highest rate of return. Th
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利率变化对美国市场的影响
利率变化对美国市场的影响可谓一把“双刃剑”，既有正面的亦有负面的影响。当美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）更改其银行借款利率，美国的整个经济随即产生连锁反应。下面，文章将探究利率变化对股票和债券市场的影响，以及在通货膨胀时期和经济衰退时期对整体经济的作用。
利率对消费的影响？
每一笔贷款均潜在着借款人逾期还款或不还款的风险。利率的存在就是为了尽可能的抵消债权人的此类风险。所谓利息就是货币所有者，即债权人因为发出货币资金而从借款者手中获得的报酬;从另一方面看，它是债务人使用货币资金必须按照所借款项的百分比所支付的“代价”。
利息的存在一定程度上促使了借款人的即时消费，换言之，消费不再是“省吃俭用”而促成的行为。利率越低，越能促使人们进行大宗物资的采购，例如：房屋、汽车。低利率意味着消费者所支付的利息较少，这在某种意义上给了他们更多的钱去消费，这便会在整个经济领域产生拉动消费的连锁反应。商业与农业也同样可以从中获益，因为低利率所带来的借贷成本低廉也同样刺激了他们进行大型设备采购。最终便会带来投入与产出的显著提高。
相反，高利率意味着消费者并没有太多的可支配收入，同时必须削减开支。当高利率加上增加的贷款标准，银行贷款量势必下降。这不仅影响消费者，也冲击着商业与农业。相应地，生产领域设备更新趋缓，同时就业市场紧缩。在更严格的贷款标准下，意味着消费者将削减支出，而这将影响到许多企业最低限额。将导致企业缩减人员，同时缩减设备采购与更新的支出。
利率对通货膨胀和经济衰退的影响
当利率上升或下降，经常会听到“联邦基金利率”。这是银行出借利率。这一利率每天变化，并且由于这个利率变化会影响其他的贷款利率，故而被用作指示器，以显示利率是否上升或下降。
这些变化可能会影响通货膨胀和经济衰退。通货膨胀是指产品和服务的价格随时间上升。某种程度上讲，通货膨胀短期可作为经济良性运行的表现之一。但是，如果通货膨胀不加以控制，长远看会导致购买力的显著丧失。
为了保持通胀可控，美联储密切监控通胀指标，如：消费者物价指数（CPI）和生产者物价指数（PPI）。当这些指标开始每年上升比率超过2-3％，美联储将上调联邦基金利率，以保持价格的上涨受到控制。因为较高的利率意味着借贷成本上升，最终将导致人们削减开支。同时，对商品和服务的需求将下降，导致通胀回落。
1981-1982年曾发生过一个典型案例，在通货膨胀率位于14％时，美联储将利率提高到20％。这引起了严重的经济衰退，但同时也有效地抑制了通货膨胀的上升。反之，利率下降可能会终结经济的衰退。当美联储降低联邦基金利率，借钱变得更为轻松，这在一定程度上诱使人们重新开始消费。
这方面的另一个很好的例子发生2001年至2002年，当时美联储下调联邦基金利率至1.25％。这极大地促进了2003年的经济复苏。通过提高和降低联邦基金利率，美联储可以防止通胀失控，并减少经济衰退的严重程度。
利率如何影响美国股市和债券市场
投资者有各种各样的投资选择。当在蓝筹股的平均股息收益率与存款（CD）以及美国国债（T-债券）的收益率间做比较时，投资者往往会选择投资回报率最高的那一项。目前，因为存款收益与美国国债利率均受联邦基金利率影响，因此，该利率往往能够左右投资者的投资决策。
上升或下降的利率也影响消费者和企业的心理。当利率上升，企业和消费者都将削减开支。这将导致盈利下降和股票价格下降。在另一方面，当利率下降显著，消费者和企业将增加支出，从而导致股票价格上涨。利率也影响债券价格。债券价格与利率呈反比关系，即当利率上升，债券价格下跌；反之，利率下降，债券价格上升。越是长期的债券，它对利率变化的敏感度越高。
销售债券是各国政府和企业筹集资金的一种有效方式。由于利率上调，贷款成本增加。这意味着低收益债券的需求将下降。由于利率下降，贷款门槛将随之降低，许多公司势必发行新债券进行融资扩张。这将导致对高收益债券需求的上升，促使债券价格走高。可赎回债券发行人可以选择通过调用其现有的债券，使他们能够锁定一个较低的利率进行再融资。
底线
利率通过影响股票和债券利率、消费者和企业支出和通货膨胀和衰退来影响经济。但是，要知道，通常利率的上升或下降所造成的影响会有12个月左右的滞后性，这意味着至少需要12个月上述影响才会逐渐显现。美联储致力于通过调整联邦基金利率保持经济的长期平衡。了解利率和美国经济之间的关系将使我们能够了解全局，同时做出更好的投资决策。
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