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目 录
Abstract 2
结论 8
英文原文
College Student Debt and Anticipated Repayment Difficulty（节选）
Abstract
This study analyzes factors associated with anticipated difficulty with repayment of debt accumulated during college using a basic model of credit risk that includes socialization processes influencing college student financial decisions. The empirical analysis uses data from the 2010 Ohio Student Financial Wellness Study. Results provide evidence of male overconfidence in financial decision making, as males are less likely than females to predict repayment difficulties. Socialization process variables, including financial management practices, financial parenting communication, and expected economic returns from education, are strongly associated with anticipated debt repayment difficulty. Inclusion of these process variables in the model results in loss of explanatory power of many of the traditional individual success variables, such as gradepoint average, and graduation plans.
Research status
A study published by the American College Health Association (2011) reports that nearly 35% of students described their financial situation over the last year of school as “traumatic or difficult to handle.” Rising education costs and poor employment prospects for some college-age students add to the challenge of financing an education with confidence. Despite these challenges, students are choosing to finance their education with loans now more than ever. In 2013, almost seven in 10 (69%) graduating seniors had student loans (Chopra, 2013). College loans have surpassed the total amount owed by all credit card revolvers (i.e., credit card holders who carry a monthly balance) and total student debt has been estimated at $1.3 trillion at the end of 2016 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2017) representing a 170% increase over the past ten years.
Approximately 37% of households headed by an adult younger than age 40 have some student debt (Fry, 2014). This is the highest share on record, with an average total student loan indebtedness of $28,400 reported for 2013 college graduates (Reed amp; Cochrane, 2014). The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that as of the end of 2012, only 39% of student loan borrowers were making any progress in paying down their balances (Lee, 2013). Using the Survey of Consumer Finances, Fry (2014) found that among households headed by a college graduate, those with student debt are more likely to have outstanding loans on their cars and greater credit card debt. This study also found that households with student debt have more difficulty making debt payments on time. Approximately 9% of student loan debtors were 60 or more days delinquent in making payments on any of their debt. This is compared to 3% of those without student loans. However, some scholars argue that the student-debt crisis is better characterized as a crisis of repayment, as loan amounts are not out of line with the value of a college education and the rise in student loan defaults are not driven by borrowers with large loan amounts (Dynarski amp; Kreisman, 2013; Looney amp; Yannelis, 2015). For example, borrowers making timely payments without difficulty carry an average loan of $22,000 compared to borrowers in default with an average loan balance of $14,000 (Dynarski amp; Kreisman, 2013)
Nonetheless, the increase in student debt has come to the forefront with many colleges, students, and parents worried about the consequences. One potential problem with escalating student debt is the possibility of default. More than 850,000 private student loans are currently in default, totaling more than $8 billion (Chopra, 2012). The budget lifetime default rates—the projected percentage of the federal loan dollars that may default during the projected 20-year life of the loan cohort—for the 2010 and 2011 cohorts are 19.2% and 18.4%, respectively (U.S. Department of Education, 2014). Students, colleges, and the federal government all incur the negative consequences of loan default. For students, the repercussions can be devastating. When borrowers default on their loans, the government can garnish wages and tax refunds, and can restrict them from receiving financial aid and possibly even social security benefits in the future (Loonin, 2006). In most cases, discharge of student loans is forbidden in bankruptcy, leaving little hope that the borrower will get any relief from the burden. Once a borrower defaults, it is reported to credit agencies, making future borrowing more difficult and more expensive. For college and university administrators, a revision in the cohort default rate (CDR) calculation, changing from a 2-year to 3-year cohort for 2012 reporting, pushed up default rates. The U.S. Department of Education (2013) reported that the national two-year cohort default rate increased from 9.1% for fiscal year (FY) 2010 to 10% for FY 2011. The three-year cohort default rate increased from 13.4% for FY 2009 to 14.7% for FY 2010, but then declined
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