Winston T.H. Koh,Roberto S. Mariano,Andrey Pavlov,Sock Yong Phang,Augustine H.H. Tan,Susan M. Wachter. Bank lending and real estate in Asia
原文：
The real estate market cycle is generally synchronized with the credit market cycle, and the procyclical effects and interactions between the two have always been valued by governments (eg IMF2000; BIS 2001a). Most of the past two decades Industrialized countries have experienced a period of boom and bust in the real estate market, while the real estate market cycle is often closely linked to the credit market cycle, so understanding the relationship between real estate price volatility and bank credit has become extremely important because of the The two-way impact relationship not only affects the size of the premises market and bank credit, but also magnifies the fluctuations of the economic cycle and increases the fragility of the financial system.
Bank loans are a key player in the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the Japanese real estate bubble, and the US real estate bubble. They have also played a crucial role in the entire real estate price boom and the financial crisis. In the 1990s, the Japanese real estate bubble and its bursting became the most typical events in the real estate bubble. The bursting of the Japanese real estate bubble has hit the Japanese economy very far. After the real estate bubble burst, the Japanese economy has fallen into a long-term recession, and there has been a depression for more than a decade. In the process of bubble formation and bursting, the massive increase in bank credit and the rapid contraction of credit during the austerity phase played a crucial role. The outbreak of the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 once again showed people the mutual strengthening effect of real estate prices and bank credit to amplify the power of economic fluctuations. After the US IT bubble burst, the Fed began to implement a low interest rate policy, and the financing cost of home purchases of real estate also declined, resulting in the continuous increase in demand for home purchases and the continued rise in US housing prices. The loose regulatory environment in the United States and the resulting subprime market have further contributed to the prosperity of the real estate market. And then a series of tightening policies have exposed the risk of accumulating a lot of money. The main players in the financial market generally mistakenly believe that as long as the real estate price keeps rising, the basic value of real estate can be The risk of defaulting on loan repayments provides protection. But the facts show that when the real estate bubble bursts and real estate prices fall, real estate-related loans and their derivatives become high-risk products, and the crisis is further aggravated by the financial accelerator mechanism and the “herd effect”. The subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in the United States in 2007 triggered the global financial crisis, causing losses in the global financial market as high as $520.8 billion. The bankruptcy of enterprises and the rise in customer default rates caused serious losses to many financial institutions. In the subprime mortgage crisis, the sharp decline in house prices became a direct cause of the crisis.
After 20 years of reform and opening up, Chinas real estate has now developed vigorously and become the backbone of the countrys economic development. The contribution rate of real estate investment continues to rise. After 2001, the contribution rate of real estate development investment to GDP has remained above 10%. In 2009, it reached 200/. The credit policy played a very important role during the 20-year boom in Chinas real estate market. Since the implementation of the housing loan reform in 1999, real estate loans have played an increasingly important role in the real estate marketization process, and the amount of real estate loans has increased year by year. According to the statistics of the central bank, real estate development loans increased by 576.4 billion yuan in 2009, personal housing loans increased by 1.43 trillion yuan, real estate loans accounted for 21.1% of total loans, and real estate development loans increased in 2010. 0. 6 trillion yuan, personal purchase loans increased by 1.42 trillion yuan, real estate loans in the third quarter of 2011 increased by 14.6% year-on-year, the balance reached 10.46 trillion yuan, of which the balance of real estate development loans 2. 64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, the balance of personal home purchase loans was 6.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, the ratio of new real estate loans to total loans fell to 17.4%.
Chinas real estate prices are closely related to the scale of Chinas credit. About 80% of the long-term new loans of Chinese residents are mortgage loans. The change in real estate prices is closely related to the scale expansion of home loans. The introduction, improvement and regulation of housing credit policies In the process, real estate prices have also undergone very large fluctuations. In 2008, in response to the global financial crisis to stimulate the sluggish real estate market, the government adopted a series of regulatory policies, including loose credit policies and preferential tax policies. In 2009, inspired by the policy, real estate prices began to reverse the decline in house prices in 2008 since March 2009, and it has grown rapidly in the following months, especially in February 2010 when house prices rose to a historical level. Peak. In February 2010, the sales prices of homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide increased by 10.7% year-on-year, among which the six cities with the largest increase were: Haikou 58.4%, Sanya 56.1%, Guangzhou 22.7%, Wenzhou 21 3%, Beijing and Jinhua 16.9%. The rapid rise in real estate prices has caused the government to attach great importance
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中文翻译：
房地产市场周期一般都和信贷市场周期同步，二者之间的顺周期效应以及相互作用关系一直以来都被各国政府所重视((e.g. IMF2000; BIS 2001a)。在过去的二十多年中大多数工业化国家都经历了房地产市场繁荣一萧条的周期，而房地产市场的周期则往往和信贷市场周期紧密相连，所以了解房地产价格波动和银行信贷之间的关系开始变得异常重要，因为二者之间的双向影响关系不但影响房地场市场和银行信贷规模，而且还会放大经济周期的波动，同时会增加金融体系的脆弱性。
在东南亚金融危机、日本房地产泡沫和美国的房地产泡沫中，银行贷款都是非常关键的角色，在整个的房地产价格的飘升到破灭以及金融危机的全过程中也起到了至关重要的作用。20世纪90年代日本房地产泡沫及其破灭成为房地产泡沫最为典型的事件，日本房地产泡沫的破灭对日本经济的打击是非常深远的。在房地产泡沫破灭后日本经济陷入长期衰退，出现了长达十几年的萧条。在泡沫形成中和破灭过程中，银行信贷的大量增加以及在紧缩阶段信贷规模的迅速萎缩都起到了至关重要的作用。2007年美国次贷危机的爆发再一次向人们展现了房地产价格和银行信贷的互相强化作用放大经济波动的威力。美国IT泡沫破灭后，美联储开始实行低利率政策，家庭购买房地产的融资成本也随之下降，导致购房需求的不断增加和美国房价持续上涨。而美国宽松的监管环境和由此导致的次贷市场的发展更进一步促进了房地产市场的繁荣。而之后采取的一系列的紧缩性政策，又暴露了本己经积聚很多的风险，金融市场各主体一般都会错误地认为只要房地产价格一直保持着持续上涨的势头，房地产的基本价值就能为这类偿付贷款违约的风险提供保护。但是事实表明，当房地产泡沫破灭，房地产价格下跌时与房地产有关的贷款及其衍生产品就会成为高风险产品，并通过金融加速器机制和“羊群效应”使危机进一步恶化。美国2007年爆发的次贷危机引发了全球金融危机，造成全球金融市场损失高达5208亿美元，企业破产，客户违约率的上升使众多金融机构遭受严重损失。在次贷危机中，房价的急剧下降成为诱发危机的直接因素。
中国房地产在经历20年的改革开放后如今得到了蓬勃的发展，成为推动国家经济发展的中坚力量，房地产投资贡献率不断上升，2001年后房地产开发投资对GDP的贡献率一直保持在10%以上，2009年达到200/。在中国房地产市场蓬勃发展的20年期间信贷政策发挥了非常重要的作用。自1999年实行住房贷款改革开始，房地产贷款在房地产市场化进程中发挥着越来越重要的作用，房地产贷款额度逐年提高。根据央行统计，2009年房地产开发贷款累计新增5764亿元，个人住房贷款累计新增1. 43万亿元，房地产贷款占总贷款比例为21. 1%, 2010年全年房地产开发贷款新增0. 6万亿元，个人购房贷款新增1. 42万亿元，2011年第三季度房地产贷款同比增长 14. 6%，余额达10. 46万亿元，其中，房地产开发贷款余额2. 64万亿元，同比增长14. 9%，个人购房贷款余额6. 94万亿元，同比增长16. 8%，新增房地产贷款占总贷款的比率降到17. 4%。
中国房地产价格和中国信贷规模密切相关，在我国居民中长期新增贷款中有80%左右为住房抵押贷款，房地产价格的变动与购房贷款的规模扩张密切相关，在住房信贷政策推出、完善及调控过程中房地产价格也相应地发生着非常大的波动。2008年为了应对全球金融危机刺激萎靡不振的房地产市场，政府采取了一系列的调控政策，包括宽松的信贷政策和优惠的税收政策等。2009年受到政策鼓舞，房地产价格自2009年3月份开始扭转了2008年房价环比下降的现象出现了正增长，并在随后的几个月迅速飘升，尤其是到了2010年2月房价涨幅达到历史峰值。2010年2月，全国70个大中城市房屋销售价格同比上涨10. 7%，其中涨幅最大的6个城市是:海口58. 4%、三亚56. 1%、广州22. 7%,温州21. 3%、北京和金华16. 9%。房地产价格过快上涨引起了政府高度重视，政策随之出台一系列的调控措施抑制过快的房地产需求，并增加有效供给。此阶段主要的信贷政策有:第一，采取差别化的信贷政策，对一套、二套、三套房采取不同的首付款、利率及限购政策。截至目前，一套房首付款上调到30%，二套房首付款上调到60%，利率为基准利率的1. 1倍，部分供求矛盾突出的城市限购三套房;第二，先后12次上调存款准备金率，使存款准备金率达到20. 5%的历史最高水平，先后5次上调存、贷款基准利率，使房地产贷款利率也随之上升，增加购房者融资成本，抑制投机性需求。在一系列的号称史上最严厉的政策调控影响下，商品房销售面积自09年12月开始回落，新建住宅价格与二手房价格环比在2010年4月份达到高点，2010年5月份开始涨幅明显放缓，房地产开发投资及新开工面积环比增速自2010年6月份开始呈现回落态势。2011年9月部分城市房地产价格指数出现了首次回落。这次调控政策的密度、严厉的程度远远超出市场的预期，尤其是明确提出了“房屋价格控制目标”，加上限购措施的大力度和大范围的执行，将大大地改变参与各方预期，特别是购房者(包括投资者)对将来的房屋价格上涨的预期将因此得到显著的抑制。
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