浙江民营中小企业国际收支风险概要及在金融危机和后危机时代的风险趋势外文翻译资料

 2023-01-11 10:11:17

浙江民营中小企业国际收支风险概要及在金融危机和后危机时代的风险趋势

原文作者 Jiang Zhou，Yan-yong Hang 国籍：中国

浙江是我国出口导向型民营中小企业最发达的省份之一（以下简称民营中小企业），这些经营灵活、勇于创新的私营中小企业在促进浙江经济发展、扩大就业、增加外汇收入等方面发挥了重要作用。截止到2010年，浙江民营中小企业占全省企业总数的99%，工业产值的84%，出口总额的82%。然而，由于受到2008年国际金融危机的影响，浙江省绍兴、宁波、温州等地的民营中小企业面临着严峻的考验，尤其是出口型纺织和制鞋企业，金融危机直接导致了近六年来出口增长率的最大下跌。与此同时，由于规模较小、抗风险能力差以及缺乏国际竞争力，在国际贸易中极大地增加了国际收支风险,特别是出口结算付款。

A.2008年国际金融危机下浙江民营中小企业国际收支风险

在国际金融危机爆发之前，浙江民营中小企业国际贸易的坏账率普遍高于世界平均水平，除了过期账款和逾期账款。国际金融危机加剧了进口商的信用违约和结算银行的坏账。比如在美国市场，就有近一千家企业的支付已经违约。与此同时，交易风险、折算风险和操作风险引起的外汇波动以及国家风险也显著增加。一般来说，浙江民营中小企业所面临的国际支付风险有以下特点：

  1. 数量大、范围广：始于美国的金融危机产生的坏账导致国际贸易蒙受巨大损失，然后迅速波及到欧盟以及其他发展中国家比如印尼、印度、阿根廷、土耳其、乌克兰和巴西。

例如，2008年，中国出口信用保险公司宁波分公司报道损失多达3740万美元，相比2007年增加了140.4%。在相同的情况下，温州报道坏账增加了40%，数量每年增长约100%。

这些坏账以及更严重和复杂的纠纷一般会导致订单取消和库存积压,特别是在美国市场。由于消费者预期的下降和欧洲房地产市场低迷，坏账相关行业包括许多劳动密集型产业如纺织、服装、机电产品以及建筑材料。特别是在温州，出口商品主要包括轻工产品，如鞋子、服装、眼镜、家居用品和低压电器等产品，坏账率明显高于全国平均水平。

  1. 进口商破产和银行信贷紧缩增加信贷风险：国际金融危机导致信用风险增加，并大大降低了欧洲和美国银行业的信用评级。例如，2008年美国破产银行的数量已经了超过了25家。这类似于比利时富通银行。因此，信用证结算使相对可靠的付款条件变得更加危险。例如，在2008年的前10个月，中国出口信用保险公司浙江分公司报道12例坏账损失，因为发行银行信用证违约，其中包括来自发展中国家的银行如叙利亚、埃及、尼日利亚和发达国家如西班牙和芬兰。在信贷紧缩，市场需求下降的双重压力下，许多进口商因为现金短缺出现流动性紧张，其中一些企业高负债/资产比率甚至破产。一些进口商不得不延长付款期限或只是默认付款来缓解资金压力，实际上是将金融风险转嫁给了中国出口商。例如，一家大型服装批发商在意大利通常可以从银行取得800万欧元的贷款，但在2008年8月由于银行暂停贷款，从而无法偿还两个浙江企业的货款，导致150万美元货款将在9月被推迟支付。

进口商在偿还货款时面临困难，因为市场需求低迷。此外，原油等大宗商品价格暴跌，钢铁、金、铝和铜在国际市场上由于恶意违反合同导致进口商更多、更直接的坏账损失。就在2008年10月，中国出口信用保险公司浙江分公司报道11笔206万美元的坏账总额，原因就是印度进口商拒绝进口制药和化工商品。

（3）汇率波动增加交易、运营和兑换风险：在进出口贸易中，汇率波动增加了交易、运营和兑换风险，间接导致了更多进口商拒绝货物或拒绝付款的情况。2008年9月，由于巴西雷亚尔贬值49%，几乎所有的浙江中小企业在出口行业的应收账款被拖欠。同样，乌克兰赫夫纳贬值22%，使得最大的本土汽车进口商要求浙江的供应商延长付款期限从120年到180天。

  1. 进口国更多的外汇管制和国家风险：国际金融危机导致金融体系紊乱，国际收支不平衡，许多国家的偿付能力下降，从而导致更多的外汇管制、国家风险和全球国际贸易环境恶化，因此，这大大增加了浙江民营中小企业的国际收支风险。在金融危机之后，来自发展中国家的主权债务违约风险将转移到更多的发达国家，特别是欧洲国家，如希腊、西班牙和葡萄牙。由于缺乏应对金融危机的缓冲机制，导致社会风险上升，为数众多的抗议活动使冰岛等政府陷入崩溃，在拉脱维亚，保加利亚、捷克共和国和匈牙利也爆发了反政府示威活动。

B.后危机时代浙江民营中小企业的国际收支风险趋势

“后危机时代”是指国际金融危机得到缓和，世界经济进入一个相对稳定的阶段。然而，仍有许多不确定性和不稳定性，因为暂时的缓和不能完全解决固有的危机与未知的动荡。纵观全球，风险水平在2008年末迅速增加，然后在2009年开始显示出逐渐下降的趋势，但是在2010年没有进一步下滑。根据中国出口信用保险公司2010年“国家风险分析报告”，20%的主权国家风险水平预计对中国没有下降反而上升，主要集中在西方欧洲、拉丁美洲和一些非洲国家。因此，后危机时代浙江民营中小企业仍将面临较大的国际收支风险，可以从以下几个方面看出。

  1. 国家风险：绝对风险水平在非洲仍然是最高的，因为法律缺失，财力有限和政府违约风险高，特别是在安哥拉、埃塞俄比亚和尼日利亚。此外，各种形式的复合贸易壁垒开始出现，特别是欧洲国家和严格控制进口的美国。例如，贸易保护主义加剧了美国等国家对进口商品的反倾销和反补贴调查。2009年对中国出口轮胎征收特别关税是一个具有里程碑意义的事件。政治风险在拉丁美洲国家，如阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉和古巴以及社会风险在欧洲国家，如希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利等也应该引起足够的重视。
  2. 外汇风险：全球汇率波动加剧，人民币升值大大降低了浙江的出口竞争力。自2010年以来，由于缺乏协调不同国家的货币政策，全球主要货币均出现大幅波动。外汇风险使浙江的出口仍然面临很多不确定性，因为大多数的浙江中小企业没有采取有效措施应对外国货币波动。此外，由于人民币不断升值，从中国进口成本增加导致一些中国商品在国外市场的利润降低导致许多进口商延迟提货，甚至不遵守或违反合同。这是特别严重的浙江中小企业出口主要由劳动密集型、低成本、低附加值的产品。例如，在义乌，虽然随着全球经济复苏，有越来越多来自欧洲和美国的圣诞节礼物需求，人民币的升值使得很多义乌外贸公司都害怕大订单，因为更大的订单通常意味着更长的付款结算期，这相当于人民币升值周期更长和更少的利润。
  3. 信用风险：受欧洲国家主权债务危机的影响，意大利和西班牙等有更高的风险。在欧洲新兴市场，经济衰退波及零售业、电子产品和基础设施建设等行业，导致大量中小企业破产，从而使得中国对外贸易信用风险增加。在亚洲新兴市场，进口商能力相对有限，因此更容易受到外部风险的影响，可能会导致更高的客户和银行的信贷风险。例如，越南市场有几个在孟加拉逾期支付或延迟支付的信用证。这类似于拉美国家，它显示了较长时间的付款结算和更多的坏账损失，特别是在秘鲁、智利和哥伦比亚。

C.国际收支风险对浙江民营中小企业的负面影响

国际支付风险的增加严重影响浙江民营外贸企业，特别是抗风险能力差、缺乏国际竞争力的中小企业，所以在后危机时代他们将处在一个更不利的出口环境中。国际收支风险不仅会导致坏账损失，也会产生恶性连锁反应等影响出口企业的盈利能力、流动性、融资能力和长期或短期贷款的偿还能力，以及更多的交易和运营风险。

  1. 导致现金流损失和流动性问题：是否可以及时、合理回收应收账款直接决定着一个企业资金的流动性，大量的坏账将直接导致现金流和资金短缺，甚至严重的金融问题，特别是中小企业。此外，因为国内企业缴纳所得税是根据销售收入的会计记录和资产损益表，因此，逾期应收账款可能会加速现金的流出，降低资金的使用效率。
  2. 影响到正常的生产经营，降低了国际竞争力：汇率波动可能影响未来浙江中小企业出口商品的销量以及价格和成本，这可能会降低其贸易竞争力和实际盈利能力。除此之外，大量的应收账款可能延长销售周期，影响资本流动、采购和销售，甚至危及到企业盈利能力和收入，直接威胁到浙江民营外贸中小企业的生存和发展。
  3. 虚高的利润和资产增加兑换风险：如果与坏账相关的应收账款没有及时确认或者没有坏账拨备，这可能会导致中小企业虚高的资产和利润以及夸张的业务性能。中小企业资产和负债因为汇率风险可能暴露更多的兑换风险。
  4. 影响短期和长期的融资能力，导致更多的金融成本和利益的损失：大量的外国账户应收账款会破坏短期偿债能力，甚至让债权人怀疑企业的信贷，从而间接破坏其短期和长期融资能力。为了缓解资金短缺，企业可以从其他渠道融资维持正常运营，这可能会增加资本成本。逾期应收账款也会增加金融成本和操作成本，有时甚至超过坏账的金额，如回收成本高，逾期利息损失，利润和利息损失以及贷款的损失。

外文文献出处：

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附外文文献原文：

II. THE PROFILE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENT RISK OF ZHEJIANG PRIVATE SMES IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND RELATED TENDENCY IN POST-CRISIS ERA

Zhejiang is one of the most developed provinces in China in terms of export-oriented private small and medium-sized enterprises (hereinafter called private SMEs), which have flexible operation and strong innovation and play a very important role in economic development, labor employment and foreign exchange revenue in Zhejiang. By 2010, Zhejiang SMEs account for 99% of the total numbers of enterprises in the province, 84% of the total industry revenue and 82% of the export volume [2]. However, due to the 2008 international financial crisis, private SMEs in Shaoxing, Ningbo, Wenzhou regions of Zhejiang experienced extremely adverse conditions of the economic winter, especially in export-oriented textile and shoe industries, which directly resulted in highest numbers of write-off closure in nearly six years and sharply decrease of export growth rate. Meanwhile, owing to smaller scale, poor risk-resisting ability and weak international competitiveness, the international payment risks tremendously increased in international trade, more specifically in the export payment settlement.

A. International Payment Risk of Zhejiang Private SMEs In 2008 International Financial Crisis

Before the outburst of the international financial crisis, the bad debt rate in international trade of private SMEs in Zhejiang is generally higher than the world average, besides longer overdue period and bigger overdue amount. The international financial crisis aggravated the situation where there was more credit risk of importers and settlement banks and more frequent occurrence of bad debts. Just for U.S. market, there were nearly one thousand enterprisesrsquo; payments have been defaulted. Meanwhile, the transaction risk, conversion risk and o

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International Payment Risk Management of Private Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises from a Cultural Value Perspective: a Case Study in Zhejiang, China

Jiang Zhou

Department of International Economics and Trade

Hangzhou Dianzi University

Hangzhou, China

Yan-yong Hang

Department of International Economics and Trade

Hangzhou Dianzi University

Hangzhou, China

II. THE PROFILE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENT RISK OF ZHEJIANG PRIVATE SMES IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND RELATED TENDENCY IN POST-CRISIS ERA

Zhejiang is one of the most developed provinces in China in terms of export-oriented private small and medium-sized enterprises (hereinafter called private SMEs), which have flexible operation and strong innovation and play a very important role in economic development, labor employment and foreign exchange revenue in Zhejiang. By 2010, Zhejiang SMEs account for 99% of the total numbers of enterprises in the province, 84% of the total industry revenue and 82% of the export volume [2]. However, due to the 2008 international financial crisis, private SMEs in Shaoxing, Ningbo, Wenzhou regions of Zhejiang experienced extremely adverse conditions of the economic winter, especially in export-oriented textile and shoe industries, which directly resulted in highest numbers of write-off closure in nearly six years and sharply decrease of export growth rate. Meanwhile, owing to smaller scale, poor risk-resisting ability and weak international competitiveness, the international payment risks tremendously increased in international trade, more specifically in the export payment settlement.

A. International Payment Risk of Zhejiang Private SMEs In 2008 International Financial Crisis

Before the outburst of the international financial crisis, the bad debt rate in international trade of private SMEs in Zhejiang is generally higher than the world average, besides longer overdue period and bigger overdue amount. The international financial crisis aggravated the situation where there was more credit risk of importers and settlement banks and more frequent occurrence of bad debts. Just for U.S. market, there were nearly one thousand enterprisesrsquo; payments have been defaulted. Meanwhile, the transaction risk, conversion risk and operational risk caused by foreign exchange fluctuations as well as the country risk also increased significantly. Generally speaking, the international payment risks faced by private SMEs in Zhejiang have the following characteristics.

  1. Large in amount and extensive in related industries with severe disputes: The bad debts in international trade have been reported losses in U.S. market as a starting point, and then spread to European Union followed by other emerging markets and developing countries such as Indonesia, India, Argentina, Turkey, Ukraine, and Brazil. For example, in 2008, Ningbo branch of China Export Credit Insurance Company reported losses up to USD37.4 million with an increase in amount by 140.4% compared to 2007. This was the same case in Wenzhou where the reported bad debts increased by 40% in frequency with a yearly amount growth by about 100%.

These bad debts involved more severe and complicated disputes in general such as cancellation of orders and inventory backlog, especially in U.S. market. Due to the decline in consumer expectations and real estate market downturn in Europe, bad debt related industries included many labor-intensive industries such as textiles, garments, mechanical and electrical products as well as building construction materials. Particularly in Wenzhou city whose export commodities mainly consist of light industrial products such as shoes, clothing and glasses and household products such as low-voltage electrical products, the bad debt rate was significantly higher than the national average.

  1. Increase in credit risk due to importersrsquo; bankruptcy and banksrsquo; credit crunch: The international financial crisis resulted in increased credit risk and sharply reduced credit rating in European and American banking industries. For example, in 2008, the number of bankrupted banks in U.S. has reached more than 25. This is similar in European banks such as Fortis Bank in Belgium. Consequently, the terms of payment by Letter of Credit which were relatively reliable before crisis became more risky. For example, in the first ten months in 2008, Zhejiang branch of China Export Credit Insurance Company reported 12 cases of bad debt losses because of issuing banksrsquo; default in Letter of Credit, which included banks from developing countries such as Syria, Egypt, Nigeria and developed countries such as Spain and Finland.

Under the dual pressures of credit crunch and decreased market demand, many importers were tight in liquidity, some of them with high liability/asset rate even bankrupted because of shortage in cash flow. Some of importers had to extend the payment period or just default the payment to ease the financial problems, which actually shifted the financial risks to Chinese exporters. For example, a large garment wholesaler in Italy normally could get EUR8 million revolving loan from the bank, but in August 2008 due to the suspension of the loan, it couldnrsquo;t repay the payment for goods imported from two Zhejiang enterprises, which led to USD1.5 million payments due in September had been delayed.

Importers also had the difficulties in repaying the amount for goods because of depressed market demand. Moreover, the slump in commodity prices such as crude oil, steel, gold, aluminum and copper in the international market also led to malicious breaches of contracts by importers which directly resulted in more bad debt losses. Just after October 2008, Zhejiang branch of China Export Credit Insurance Company reported 11 bad debt claims with the total amoun

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