There are numerous industries in which experts offer opinions about the quality of products and brands. For example, movie critics make suggestions about a soon-to-be released movies artistic and entertainment value, BusinessWeek hosts Robert Parkers column recommending wines, Consumer Reports has long compared brands across numerous product categories, and so forth. In addition, consumers are increasingly posting online evaluations of products and brands?for example, they review books on Amazon.com, movies on Netflix.com, video games on Gamespot.com, or restaurants on Citysearch.com. Consumers find judgments from both professional critics and amateur communities to be helpful, in part because the sheer number of new products and the frequency of their launches (e.g., weekly releases for movies) can be over whelming for consumers in the choice process. In addition, many such products appear wholly unique, so a comparison of the movies Terminator Salvation and X-Men Origins:Wolverine or a comparison of the wines Argentinian Malbec and Italian Prosecco is difficult; thus, both critics and other ordinary consumers evaluations assist in decision making.
Professional critics commonly provide reviews and ratings; this information signals unobservable product quality and helps consumers make good choices (Boulding and Kirmani 1993; Kirmani and Rao 2000). Although amateur consumers can obtain useful information from critics, they are sometimes at odds with critics because of some fundamental differences between the two groups in terms of experiences and preferences (Chakravarty, Liu, and Mazumdar 2008; Holbrook 1999; Wanderer 1970). Therefore, consumers often seek like-minded amateurs opinions in various ways.
The recent development and proliferation of online consumer review forums, in which consumers share opinions on products, has had an enormous impact on the dynamics of word of mouth (WOM) by effectively connecting consumers (Chen and Xie 2008; Eliashberg, Elberse, and Leenders 2006; Godes and Mayzlin 2004; Godes et al. 2005;Mayzlin 2006; Trusov, Bucklin, and Pauwels 2009). These online forums lower the product information search costs, which motivates consumers to seek such review information (Stigler 1961). After all, consumer communities collective opinions can have as much influence on other consumers choices as professional critics opinions. In addition to these two influence groups, consumers make choices in accordance with their own judgments based on past experiences in the given product category, which can be contrary to opinions from either professional critics or amateur communities. In this sense, consumers are active information processors rather than passive information receivers (Bettman 1970).
To provide a comprehensive evaluation of how product reviews and ratings influence consumers choices and satisfaction arising from their experiential consumption, we consider the opinions from these multiple sources. Such external and internal information sources are particularly important in movie choice because viewers constantly face the problem of choosing satisfying movies among many new and existing ones. Indeed, the development of the Internet has engendered movie rental service Web sites (e.g., Netflix, Blockbuster), on which members can access a wealth of movie review information with minimal effort. Members can also post their own opinions with ease. In such an environment, the influence of online member communities general opinions on movie choice is maximized (Chevalier and Mayzlin 2006; Liu 2006). Although the contributions of this research are intended to encompass multiple industries, we focus on the movie industry, in part because of its sizable financial contribution to the general economy.
This research attempts to highlight the relationships between product ratings and product financial performance—more specifically, various sources of movie ratings and movie performances (i.e., movie revenues and viewer satisfaction)—while considering various movie quality characteristics (e.g., movie costs, original versus sequel). To accomplish this objective, we conduct an empirical analysis at two levels: the (aggregate) movie level and the (individual) viewer level. First, we focus on the movie-level analysis to examine the two-way dynamic influences between movie ratings and movie revenues. In this analysis, we view movie revenues as the collective results of individual viewers choices. In doing so, we focus on collective critics and amateur communities ratings for each movie but not on individual viewers ratings. Second, to supplement this aggregate view, we examine how individual viewers movie consumption influences their postconsumption evaluations. To do so, we conduct a viewer-level analysis, in which we test the influence of both the focal viewers viewing and rating history and the movie communitys collective opinions on the focal viewers new movie rating, while controlling for movie quality (i.e., movie characteristics).
This two-level analysis approach enables us to examine the relationships between movie ratings and movie performances from complementary angles and to provide important managerial insights. Importantly, the (macro) movie level analysis captures moviegoers collective choices in the movie industry, whereas the (micro) viewer-level analysis taps into individual consumers postconsumption experiences. We develop and test five hypotheses based on this two-way classification.
From a managerial perspective, on the basis of some key empirical findings, this research suggests that movie marketers should persistently promote movies that garner high ratings to sustain movie revenues and should cautiously consider sequels despite their originals commercial success. For movie rental firms, this study provides insights into ways to recommend movies on the basis of the focal members rating history, the membe
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有许多行业专家提供关于产品质量和品牌的意见。例如，影评人对即将上映的电影的艺术和娱乐价值提出建议，商业周刊主办方Robert Parker在专栏推荐葡萄酒，消费者报告长期以来在数量庞大的产品类别中比较品牌，等等。此外，越来越多的消费者在网上的评价产品和品牌？此外，消费者越来越多地写出产品和品牌的网络在线评价。例如，他们在亚马逊上看书，在Netflix上看电影, 在Gamespot上打电子游戏, 或者在Citysearch上查找餐厅。消费者发现来自专业评论家和业余社区的判断是有益的，部分原因是新产品的数量变化和它们的开展频率（例如，每周放映电影）可以在选择过程中为消费者做出决定。 另外，很多这样的产品完全独特的出现，所以一个关于电影终结者和X战警的比较萌生：沃略日讷或者葡萄酒阿根廷马尔贝克和意大利波塞克很难比较；因此，批评家和其他普通消费者评价辅助决策。
专业批评家通常提供的评论和评级；这信息预示不可观测的产品质量并且帮助消费者做出正确的选择。尽管业余消费者可以从评价中获取有用的信息，由于经验和偏好的不同，他们有时会与批评者意见相左。因此，消费者经常以各种方式寻求志同道合的爱好者的意见。
在线消费者评论论坛最近的发展和扩散，消费者在产品上分享意见，通过有效地连接消费者对口碑动态产生了巨大的影响。这些在线论坛降低产品信息搜索成本，促使消费者寻求这样的审查信息(Stigler 1961)。毕竟，消费者群体的集体意见会像专业的评论家一样对其他消费者的选择产生很大的影响。除了这两个影响团体，消费者根据过去在给出的产品类别中的经验做出判断，这可能违背了无论是专业评论家或业余群体的意见。从这个观点上来说，消费者是积极的信息处理者，而不是被动的信息接收者。
为了提供一个关于如何产品评论和评级影响消费者的选择和满意度所产生的体验消费的全面的评价，我们考虑了这些多个来源中的意见。这种外部和内部的信息来源在电影选择中是特别重要的，因为观众不断面临的问题是在许多新上映的和现有的电影中选择自己满意的。事实上，互联网的发展已经产生了电影租赁服务网站(例如Netflix)，会员可以花最少的时间获得大量的电影影评信息。会员也可以轻松发表自己的意见。在这样的环境下，网络成员群体的个人观点成为对电影选择的影响最大的部分。虽然本研究的贡献是为了包含多个不同的行业，我们更加专注于电影业，部分原因是其对总体经济可观的财政贡献。
本研究试图突出产品评级和产品的财务表现之间的关系—更明确，各种电影收视率和电影表演的来源（即电影收入和观众满意度）-同时考虑各种电影质量特性（例如，电影成本，原创与续集）。为了实现这一目标，我们在两个层次进行了实证分析：电影水平（总）和观众的水平（个人）。首先，我们专注于电影层面的分析，以检查电影收视率和电影收入之间的双向动态影响。在这种分析中，我们将电影收入视为个人观众选择的集体结果。在这样做时，我们专注于对每部电影集体评论家和业余群体的收视率，而不是个人观众的收视率。第二，补充总的观点，我们研究个人观众的电影消费影响高管薪酬评估。要做到这一点，我们进行了观众的层次分析，在我们测试的焦点观众的观看和评价历史和电影界的集体意见的焦点观众的新电影评级的影响，同时控制电影质量（即，电影的特点）。
这两个层次的分析方法，使我们能够从互补的角度检查电影收视率和电影表演之间的关系，并且提供重要的管理见解。重要的是，电影的（宏观）水平分析捕捉观众在电影行业的集体选择，而（微）观众水平分析利用到个体消费者的高管薪酬的经验。我们在这种双向分类的基础上开发和测试五个假设。
从管理的角度来看，在一些关键的实证研究结果的基础上，本研究认为，电影营销者应该持续推动电影，获得高收视率来维持电影收入和应谨慎考虑后果尽管他们原有的商业是成功的。对于电影租赁公司，这项研究在方法上提供了见解即根据焦点成员的历史评价推荐电影，会员群体的整体电影评级模式，以及电影的特点。Netflix公司认为，约60%的成员根据推荐适合自己的口味选择电影。此外，我们的研究结果也适用于其他消费的情况下，消费者不断地面临新的产品（例如，新的书，新的音乐专辑），根据自己的经验，志同道合的业余社区的普遍意见和评论家的专业评论确定新产品的预期价值。
在下面的章节中，我们讨论的理论背景和发展有关电影收视率和性能之间的关系的假设。我们的实证分析测试的假设，同时使用电影级数据和观众级数据。最后，我们讨论了管理对我们的研究结果的影响。
然而，不太明显的是，我们测试的假设就是否强大的收入可以接着在电影的进程中产生更积极的评论而论。如果我们能够证实评论和收入之间交替的交互作用，我们将建立高收视率有效地维持高电影收入，反之，电影的寿命不长。
我们的推理是相似Duan，Gu和Whinston的，它表明口碑效应的一个独特的方面是口碑营销与销售之间的正反馈机制的存在。同样的，Godes和Mayzlin认为，成功的商业电视节目，可以产生在普通观众更多的共鸣声。增强共鸣声通常对成功的商业电影来说是积极有益的，因为电影收视率和电影收入之间的普遍存在积极的关系。换句话说，电影观众谈论的是成功的电影，它比失败的电影更加影响收入和收视率。行为学习理论将这种动态过程描述为替代性学习，因为消费者从市场中学习，这个过程积极地增强了他们的满意度。从高收入电影中得到有利的增强的共鸣有助于在接下来的几周里提高电影收视率，因为有更多的观众对电影有积极的体验。这种关系由于普通观众组成的网络社区环境之间的相互确认而加强。
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