On the impact of Chinas manufacturing industry key factor in inter-regional transfer
[Abstract] affect inter-regional transfer of industry there are many factors, this paper SPSS software, using factor analysis method to study the impact of Chinas inter-provincial transfer of manufacturing of the main factors which, through analysis, fixed asset investment is the impact of inter-provincial industrial transfer between the main factor, followed by two important factors affecting the number of employed and employment is on average remuneration. preliminary interpretation of the labor situation can be inter-provincial region in Chinas manufacturing industry Why are there between the transfer adhesive.
[Keywords] SPSS Factor Analysis Of Regional Industry Transfer Adhesive Manufacturing
1 The Background
China has become the worlds second largest after the U.S. industrial manufacturer in the manufacturing sector enhance the development of China in the international economic right to speak, but the level of development of Chinas manufacturing industry there are regional differences in the transfer of manufacturing in the region Chinas economic development will have significant impact on industry in the region decided to transfer between the fundamental factor is the interest-driven, rational business operators in order to maximize profits and avoid business risks, allowing companies to shift in space, while the same types of businesses in the area between the mass transfer, to form the industrial transfer. shows that the transfer of industries and a market economy under the conditions of corporate behavior, although in some areas of national policy, hoping to promote the transfer of some industries, but the government will not decide industrial transfer of the main factors, so, what factors affect the study restricts the transfer of industries, has some practical significance.
2 The Problems Facing Chinas Industrial Transfer
What factors in the analysis prior to the transfer of our industry, we must first clearly present our analysis of problems in industrial transfer, targeted to study the impact of Chinas manufacturing industry key factor for interregional transfers.
1 The Transfer Of Our Industry Faces The Problem Of Extensive
As the performance evaluation and other reasons, the region was transferred economic interests of government officials look for those high pollution, high energy consumption, low efficiency of the industry, like accept only paid attention to the transfer of funds and the number of items, ignoring the technology, management ability and talent introduction. This is only concerned about the size and number, ignoring the needs of regional industrial development planning, blindly accept labor, resource-intensive industrial transfer approach is a mistake. the transfer of our industry is facing the problem of labor
China there is a serious problem of uneven distribution of labor. Not only in the amount of labor is also reflected in the quality of workers present a lot of surplus labor are flocking to the developed eastern coastal regions, while the central and western regions the amount of labor is not as good as the east coast region so abundant. Another major problem is that there is a huge difference in the quality of workers, first region is due to three regions of basic education and vocational education are different, eastern and central regions of the general educational level is higher than in the western region, the quality of workers also relatively high. with high-quality personnel in central and western regions to the east coast of the flow, making three regions there is a huge regional differences in the distribution of talent. undertake the industrial transfer of central and western regions supporting capacity and the low level of market
Infrastructure in central and western regions relative to lag behind some of the eastern coastal areas, transportation capacity nor the well-developed eastern region due to the relatively weak industrial base in central and western regions, there is no formation of industrial clusters. Industry cluster refers to a specific area, with the relationship between competition and cooperation, and geographically concentrated, interactive association of companies, specialized suppliers, service providers, financial institutions, manufacturers of related industries and other relevant agencies and other components groups of many industrial clusters including as related to the extension of the sales channels, customers, assist manufacturers, specialized infrastructure providers, governments and other providers of professional training, information, research and development, standards development organizations such as . industrial clusters also have economies of scale and externalities, while central and western regions is limited development of industrial clusters, industrial chain defect, a serious fracture, resulting in many businesses transfer to supporting local businesses and find relevant services, access to high quality, low-cost raw materials, intermediate products, labor and related accounting, financial services, etc. related industries supporting capacity of central and western regions of backward, a serious impediment to the central and western regions to eastern industrial transfer.
Central and western regions of the low level of the market. As the executive functions of government is too strong, too many non-market operation, market imperfections, all the high cost of business, management is complicated, so that transaction costs increase less than the other division of the market. A lot of east central and western regional labor shift, less mobile population, making the market capacity is low, demand for industrial products into the market to reduce. our country
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浅议影响我国制造业区域间转移的关键因子
［摘 要］影响产业区域间转移的因素有很多，本文通过SPSS软件，运用因子分析方法来研究影响我国省际间制造业转移的主要因素有哪些。通过分析发现，固定资产投资是影响产业省际间转移的最主要因素，其次两个重要的影响因素是就业人员数和就业人员平均劳动报酬。劳动力状况也可以初步解释我国制造业在省际区域之间转移为什麽存在粘性。
［关键词］产业转移 SPSS 因子分析 区域粘性 制造业
一、背景
中国目前已成为仅次于美国的全球第二大工业制造国。制造业的发展增强了中国在国际经济领域的话语权。但是我国的制造业发展水平存在着区域差异，制造业的区域内转移将对我国的经济发展带来重大影响。决定产业在区域间转移的根本因素是利益的驱动，理性的企业经营者为了追求利润最大化和回避经营风险，使得企业在空间上进行转移，而同类型企业在区域间的大规模转移，就形成了产业转移。可见产业转移又是市场经济条件下的企业行为，虽然国家政策在某些方面，希望推动一些产业的转移，但是政府意志并不是决定产业转移的主要因素。所以，研究哪些因素影响制约着产业转移，具有一定的现实意义。
二、我国产业转移面临的问题
在分析哪些因素影响我国产业转移之前，首先要分析清楚目前我国产业转移中出现的问题，有针对性的来研究影响我国制造业区域间转移的关键因子。
1.我国产业转移面临的粗放型问题
由于政绩考核等原因，被转移区域的政府官员只看经济利益，对于那些高污染、高耗能、低效率的产业一样照单全收，只重视资金转移和项目的数量，忽视了技术、管理能力和人才的引进。这种只重视规模和数量，忽视本区域产业发展规划需要，一味承接劳动、资源密集型产业转移的做法是一个误区。 我国产业转移面临的劳动力问题
我国存在着严重的劳动力分布不均匀问题。不仅表现在劳动力数量上，还表现在劳动者素质方面。目前大量的剩余劳动力都涌向东部沿海等发达地区，而中西部地区劳动力数量则不如东部沿海地区那麽充足。另外一个最主要的问题是劳动者素质存在巨大差异。首先是由于东中西地区的基础教育和职业教育水平存在差异，东中部地区的教育水平比西部地区普遍高一些，劳动者素质也相对高一些。加上中西部地区高素质人才向东部沿海地区的流动。使得东中西地区的人才分布存在巨大差异。 承接产业转移的中西部地区配套能力和市场化程度低
中西部地区的基础设施建设相对东部沿海地区要落后一些，交通运输能力也没有东部地区发达。由于中西部地区工业基础相对薄弱，没有形成产业集群。产业集群是指在特定区域中，具有竞争与合作关系，且在地理上集中，有交互关联性的企业、专业化供应商、服务供应商、金融机构、相关产业的厂商及其他相关机构等组成的群体。许多产业集群还包括由于延伸而涉及到的销售渠道、顾客、辅助产品制造商、专业化基础设施供应商等，政府及其他提供专业化培训、信息、研究开发、标准制定等的机构。产业集群还具有规模经济和外部性。而中西部地区产业集群发展有限，产业链缺损、断裂严重，致使许多转移来的企业在当地找不到配套的企业和相关服务机构，获得高品质、低成本的原材料、中间产品、劳动力以及相关的会计、金融服务等。中西部地区相关产业配套能力的落后，严重阻碍了东部地区产业向中西部地区的转移。
中西部地区的市场化程度低。由于政府的行政职能过强，非市场化运作过多，市场发育不完善，企业经营的各种费用偏高，经营手续繁琐，使交易成本增加。另外市场化分工不足。中西部地区劳动力大量东移，流动人口较少，使得市场容量较低，产业转入地的产品需求市场缩减。 我国存在着产业转移粘性
现行的产业转移理论说明，只要不同地区的产业间存在比较优势，就会出现从高梯度地区向低梯度地区的产业转移。我国东部沿海地区就属于制造业的高梯度地区，中西部地区属于低梯度地区。东部沿海地区的制造业相比中西部地区存在比较优势，但是实际上在我国并没有出现理论预期的那种大规模产业转移现象。主要就是由于我国产业转移面临的劳动力问题，中西部地区配套能力和市场化程度低等问题，导致了我国产业转移尤其是制造业转移的粘性问题。
三、对我国31个省市自治区制造业转移的关键因子分析
本文将运用SPSS软件，对影响区域间制造业的各个因素做关键因子分析。首先是选取对产业转移有影响的指标。考虑到对我国省际间产业转移可能产生影响的因素有以下一些：固定资产投资、就业人员数、就业人员平均劳动报酬、居民消费水平、煤炭储量、公路长度、土地面积、市场成交量、长途通讯、资本规模、发电量和建设用地。这些数据选取的是我国31个省2010年数据，来自《2010中国统计年鉴》。
将以上数据导入SPSS中，提取的因子个数是特征根大于1的。KMO检验的值为0.723，巴特莱特球体检验的值为0.000，变量之间的相关性满足条件，可以用因子分析法，SPSS运行结果如表格1所示。选取的前三个因子的累积方差贡献率为80.640%，达到要求，SPSS运行结果如表格2所示。
碎石图，如图1所示。给出了12个特征根的变化情况。前三个变化非常显着，从第四个开始变化不显着，在第三个特征根那里出现了拐点。所以选择3个因子是比较合理的。
图 1
表格3是因子1、因子2和因子3的负载值表。为了凸显出因子的实际意义，采用方差最大旋转法，这是一种正交旋转法，使得公共因子的负载向正负1或0靠近，有利于解释公共因子的实际含义。
a. 3 components extracted.
表格4是旋转后的负载表。从表中可以看出因子1主要对固定资产投资、就业人员数、资本规模、发电量有较大影响。因此把因子1命名为“产业规模”因子。因子2对就业人员平均劳动报酬和居民消费水平有显着影响。因此把因子2命名为“劳工福利”因子。因子3对煤炭储量的影响显着影响，因此把它命名为“资源”因子。
四、结果分析
由前面的因子分析可以看出，在选取的12个对省际间产业转移可能产生影响的因素中，可以归纳出三个因子，它们分别是“产业规模”因子，“劳工福利”因子和“资源”因子。一个省的自身产业规模会产生一个极化效应或者扩散效应，对产业转移产生影响。如果是自身产业规模与其它两个因子，即资源和劳动力情况相适应，那麽就可能产生极化效应，吸引其它省的产业向本省内的转移。如果自身产业规模与资源和劳动力情况不相适应，那麽就可能产生扩散效应，本省内的产业向其它省转移。而“劳工福利”对产业转移也有影响。当劳工福利好的时候，如果是工资报酬高，那麽会增加企业经营的成本，但是同时，如果消费水平也高，就会增加市场需求，对居民日常消费品的制造企业来说，是转移的动力。另外一个因子是资源。一个地区的资源储备量丰富与产业转入之间存在正相关关系。
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